Will the exit polling be flawed?
I am not talking about the Bradley effect here (though fivethirtyeight.com has an interesting take on it). I am talking about the success that Barack Obama has had in turning out the vote in early voting.
Exit polls typically will not count those people who vote early. They will only count people who came out and vote on election day. So if Obama has many more voters coming out before election day, then wouldn’t the data obtained from those exit polls likely be skewed?
So to me, in states where Obama has done extremely well in getting out the early vote, I feel that the actual results are likely to be higher for Obama than the exit polling data will suggest.
Just sayin…