Barack Obama for President

The numbers are astounding and these are current as of Monday at 6:30 (people still voted after 6:30 because of long lines).

Democrats lead Republicans in early voting by a nearly 2 to 1 margin and account for nearly 60% of the early voters.

If McCain has any weakness in Louisiana (I am not saying he has one, but if he does) it has to be the fact that Democrats have a much better get out the vote machine so far. If this keeps up through tomorrow (the end of early voting) then election day may be very interesting.

And even if this doesn’t help Obama win Louisiana, it has to help Mary Landrieu (who just nabbed another big Republican endorsement in Dave Treen).

I am not talking about the Bradley effect here (though fivethirtyeight.com has an interesting take on it). I am talking about the success that Barack Obama has had in turning out the vote in early voting.

Exit polls typically will not count those people who vote early. They will only count people who came out and vote on election day. So if Obama has many more voters coming out before election day, then wouldn’t the data obtained from those exit polls likely be skewed?

So to me, in states where Obama has done extremely well in getting out the early vote, I feel that the actual results are likely to be higher for Obama than the exit polling data will suggest.

Just sayin…