Barack Obama for President

I am not talking about the Bradley effect here (though fivethirtyeight.com has an interesting take on it). I am talking about the success that Barack Obama has had in turning out the vote in early voting.

Exit polls typically will not count those people who vote early. They will only count people who came out and vote on election day. So if Obama has many more voters coming out before election day, then wouldn’t the data obtained from those exit polls likely be skewed?

So to me, in states where Obama has done extremely well in getting out the early vote, I feel that the actual results are likely to be higher for Obama than the exit polling data will suggest.

Just sayin…

Obama is canceling all campaign events on Thursday and Friday to visit with his Grandmother who has fallen ill. My thoughts and prayers are with the Obama family.

Republicans in Ohio, trying to  make sure that 200,000 Ohio voters would be unable to cast their vote in this election, got defeated today but the US Supreme Court who overturned the appeals court ruling that the Ohio Secretary of State would be required to set up a process by today to deal with possible voter registration issues.

The problem here was that Republicans did not want you to be able to vote if your voter registration has you as “John Smith” but your DMV records say “John T. Smith”. So at least for today, we have a victory for Democracy.

On Fiscal Policy:

Barack Obama clearly won the first portion of the debate. John McCain tried to make it a “class warfare” issue and tried to play the socialism card. However, Obama clearly debunked McCain’s claims by pointing out that over 95% of small businesses make less than $250,000 and that is where the most jobs are created.

John McCain repeated the misleading statement about Ireland’s 11% tax rate. Yes, they may have that tax rate, but do they have the same loopholes for the wealthy? This is something McCain leaves out.

What will you cut because of the current economic crisis:

Obama will cut programs, line by line, in order to save money to pay for his programs. He would invest in energy programs that will prevent us from having to borrow money from China to send it to Saudi Arabia.

McCain brought up the lie that Obama is against drilling, which he is not. McCain said he would have a spending freeze, which some have labeled as him using a hatchet. McCain defended his stance by saying that he would use a hatchet and then use a scalpel. Um, if you use the hatchet, the scalpel is kinda useless don’t you think?

McCain would also fight for a line item veto. Apparently McCain doesn’t remember the Supreme Court ruling stating that the line item veto violates the Constitution.

McCain brought up earmarks that he would cut and veto. However, as Obama pointed out, earmarks are a very small part of the federal budget.

McCain also brought up the bill that Obama voted for that contained “goodies” for oil companies. I guess McCain forgets that when it came to adding those “goodies” to the legislation, Obama voted against them. Obama only voted for the main bill that he supported that unfortunately contained some provisions he didn’t like.

Setting the tone of the campaign:

McCain blamed Obama for failing to do a series of town hall debates for the reason that the debate took an ugly turn. Who is he trying to fool? That answer was just pathetic.

McCain complained that Obama did not repudiate the claims made by another elected Democrat. Did McCain repudiate the claims that Obama pals around with terrorists when Sarah Palin made her claim? Of course not!

McCain then brought up public financing and Obama’s changing his mind about accepting it. I have a video about that here. Basically, Republicans are against government handouts but they criticize Obama for refusing to accept a government handout. It is sheer hypocrisy.

McCain said that attacks on his healthcare plan are an attack ad. Being critical of POLICY is not an example of an attack ad. If this campaign only contained criticisms of policy then we would be in a much better place. But McCain runs ad like this and this, hardly criticisms of Obama’s policy. They are personal attacks and the kind of vindictive attacks that the American public are sick of.

McCain said that Obama falsely claims that McCain is against federal funding for stem cell research. McCain IS against federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, and that is Obama’s point.

McCain then went on to make personal attacks against Obama by questioning his relationship with Ayers and ACORN. Obama’s response blew McCain out of the water.

“The fact that this has become such an important part of your campaign Senator McCain says more about your campaign that it says about me”

McCain kept on digging himself deeper and deeper. If anything loses McCain this election, this may very well be it. I think McCain basically scuttled the ship that is his campaign there. He came off looking very desperate.

Why would the country be better off if your running mate became president?:

If anyone really needs to hear the candidates explain this, you are not paying attention to this election. Sarah Palin is absolutely unqualified to be Vice President.

By what specific percentage will you reduce our reliance on foreign oil in your first term?:

Obama gave a timeframe of 10 years to eliminate our reliance on middle eastern oil. McCain failed to list a number of years or a percentage in his first term.

The discussion got to free trade. Well, Obama is against unfair trade agreements that don’t take into account fair labor laws. If one country lacks the labor laws that we have, that puts our workers at a disadvantage. Clearly Obama has it right on trade.

Would you control healthcare costs over expanding healthcare coverage?:

This one is really simple. Obama’s healthcare plan both expands coverage and reduces costs. I have a video comparing the two plans here. By providing preventive care, we will reduce costs and increase coverage.

McCain continued the lie that Obama will fine “Joe the plumber” for not providing healthcare. If you go to Barack Obama’s website, he clearly states that small businessmen (like “Joe the plumber”) wont pay any fines and that he will provide tax credits to those businesses who do provide healthcare. And when Obama said “zero”, McCain looked like a deer in headlights, and this also might be a moment that loses McCain this election.

McCain also said that Obama’s plan is a “single payer system” which is absolutely false. Single payer systems do not allow people to have their own plans.

Roe v. Wade and judicial litmus tests:

McCain rejects a litmus test, will only appoint Supreme Court justices who are qualified, but he doesn’t believe that anyone who supports the ruling of Roe v Wade is qualified. How about that for spin… he won’t have a litmus test unless he does.

Obama believes women are in the best position to make that decision, that there is a right to privacy in the Constitution, and that States should not be able to ignore that right to privacy via state referendum. Obama also brought up the Ledbetter case. We are absolutely on the same page.

Obama clearly stated that he would be against all late term abortions as long as the bill contained provisions to help the woman save her life or health. I am in 100% agreement with him. And I would personally add that anyone who would prevent a woman from saving her life… is a monster.

Obama then went on to discuss the desire of reasonable people on both sides of the abortion debate to reduce the number of abortions that take place. Democrats added that to their platform this year. What Obama forgot to mention was that the Republican’s eliminated that from their platform this year as well. Republicans eliminated the goal to reduce abortions and only kept the desire to make a law punishing people for getting them. How sad is that?

Conclusion:

McCain clearly lost this debate. McCain made part of his attacks in this debate on Obama’s eloquance (is that akin to him saying that Obama is so well spoken?). From his continued foolish personal attacks on Obama during the question on if you could clean up this campaign to his “deer in the headlights” look when Obama said that the fine “Joe the Plumber” would pay is “zero” fines for failing to provide healthcare, he just lost. Period.

Now, Obama came off as Presidential. He fended off McCain’s personal attacks. He correted McCain’s lies. He was just better tonight and clearly won this debate. Now, if you want another reason to vote for Obama, ask Republican Dick Luger who endosed Obama’s approach to diplomacy by saying:

He correctly cautions against the implication that hostile nations must be dealt with almost exclusively through isolation or military force… In some cases, refusing to talk can even be dangerous

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Really? Desperate Republicans have reached new lows in this election.

Pathetic. Republicans needs to win over the centrists in the election and not the far right. Actions such as these will only push more centrists to Obama.

You can go to the Sacramento Republican website and see some of the other tactics they use, including using the photoshopped Obama image of him holding a phone upsidedown. Again, pathetic.

On the Rush Limbaugh show, Sarah Palin discussed the ACORN voter registration issue by saying that there is “more to the story” than the media is letting on. She also said:

“Obama has a responsibility to rein in ACORN,”

Of to claim that Obama is responsible for another organization is a complete logical fallacy. But that is typical of Republicans. And the claim that there is “more to the story” is another Typical Republican Tactic. She doesn’t actually KNOW that there is more to the story, or else she would have said what is left to be reported. She just blames the “liberal media” for not reporting the supposed additional part of the story that she doesn’t even know, and probably doesn’t even exist.

The Obama campaign responded by saying that the McCain/Palin campaign is using a:

a starkly political maneuver to deflect attention from the reality of the suppression strategies pursued by national, state and Republican Party committees.

And apparently, this is all much ado about nothing. The ACORN spokesperson was on Greta last night and discussed the thousands of problematic voter registration forms:

We registered nationwide 1.3 million folks over an 18 month period, employing some 13,000 workers during that process. And during that time on a weekly basis, a by-weekly basis, we identified and tagged potential problem voter registration forms. At that time, we notified local boards of elections of those problematic forms.

What we’re hearing about today, Greta, is the accumulation of those forms over an 18-month period that some folks are wrapping in an umbrella of fraud. And that’s just not the case.

These are forms that we identified, we brought to the local board’s attention, and we know that they might be problems and ask for the local boards to identify them.

So they did what they were supposed to do by submitting the information to the election boards, yet the Republicans are attacking them for it WHILE not talking about the voter suppression that takes place within their own party. Again, typical Republican tactics.

Sometimes those checking the facts need to fact checked as well. I pointed this out previously on the embryonic stem cell issue. Now, the fact checkers are being critical on Obama for stating that he will counter the increase in spending created by his proposed programs by cutting other spending from the budget. The yahoo “fact check” says:

OBAMA: “Actually I’m cutting more than I’m spending so that it will be a net spending cut.”

THE FACTS: The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Obama would increase spending by $425 billion over four years and reduce spending by $144 billion for a net increase in the deficit of $281 billion. Obama has said he’ll cut pork-barrel programs and the costs of the war in Iraq to pay for his programs — as well as raise taxes on the wealthy — but the specifics of his new spending plans outweigh the few spending cuts he’s identified.

Really? According to the Washington Post: 

The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculates that Obama has promised a total of $990 billion in new spending over his first four-year term. At the same time, he has also proposed spending cuts that amount to around $989 billion, so the net cost roughly balances out. The debt will continue to increase, more or less in line with current projections, based on keeping most of the Bush tax cuts.

“Obama has talked about a lot of new spending initiatives, but he has also talked about new ways to curb spending,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee, whose detailed budget analyses are available here. “I give him points for holding the line.”

I will point out that Maya MacGuineas was a former McCain advisor in the 2000 campaign. It is rather unfortunate that the fact checkers can sometimes be unreliable.

I didn’t have the ability to live blog tonight. However, I did record the debate and I have some comments.

A) I really think that when you go back and look at the video, McCain made a real fool of himself on Obama’s “spending increase”. I mean, Barack Obama said that McCain would tell the voters that Obama would increase spending but fail to tell you about the places where Obama would cut spending (and that those spending cuts would be greater than the additional spending). What did John McCain do a minute later? He told the voters that Obama would increase spending and failed to mention that Obama would also initiate spending cuts. Did John McCain just not remember what Obama said a minute before?

B) In the Saddleback forum, John McCain called Meg Whitman wise and described her as one of three people he would look to for advice. Now he has elevated her to a potential candidate for Secretary of the Treasury? With our economic problems, Meg Whitman is probably one of the last people we need in that important position.

C) John McCain criticized Obama, again, for saying he would attack Al Queda across the border of Pakistan if Pakistan was unable or unwilling to act. McCain quoted Teddy Roosevelt saying that Obama should speak more softly. McCain then went on to discuss how he saw KGB in the eyes of Putin, that the “bomb Iran” song parody was just a joke, and in the last debate described clearly (and not very softly) how he would circumvent the Russian veto on the U.N. Security Council. Again, very hypocritical for McCain (and Obama was very clever to attack back with the Bomb Iran comment again).

D) On healthcare, McCain  attacked Obama for supposedly setting up fines if you don’t follow the supposed mandate for healthcare. Obama stated that this was a falsehood. I did a simple search for “fine” under Barack Obama’s healthcare plan. I came up with zero results. McCain said that Obama’s fine would hurt small business. In fact, he stated in the debate:

If you are a small businessperson and you dont insure your employees, Senator Obama will fine you.

I found this in Obama’s healthcare plan.

Large employers that do not offer meaningful coverage or make a meaningful contribution to the cost of quality health coverage for their employees will be required to contribute a percentage of payroll toward the costs of the national plan. Small businesses will be exempt from this requirement.

So there you have it. Small businesses will not be mandated to cover their employees or help them get their own plans. Period. The fact checkers confirm this. So this is a clear McCain lie.

And the only mandate for healthcare is that children are required to have healthcare. Obama plans to expand the CHIP program to make that possible. So again, there would be no need for any sort of “fine” because CHIP would be there to help parents provide healthcare for children.

E) The only criticism of Obama I have tonight is that he still did not attack the false McCain claim that his plan for Iraq would amount to some sort of defeat in Iraq. Obama did say that we would have a responsible withdrawal of troops, and that is great and I fully support that. However, Obama MUST attack McCain’s false claims about “defeat” or “surrender” in Iraq. And again, I have no idea why he refuses to do it.

At the end of the debate, it is a clear Obama victory. He explained the majority of his plans clearly. He showed why his plans are better. He defended his beliefs against false McCain charges on most of the issues, and did so in a very cool and calm manner. Basically, he came off looking more Presidential. Perhaps there is a good reason for that.

I have a subscription to the Townhall email updates. I got them when I responded to some Bobby Jindal post they had.

Well, the townhall email I got in my inbox today was just bizarre. They want to defeat Obama with “shock and awe” (it doesn’t seem to be working as of yet, considering MSNBC shows Obama with 260+ electoral votes with many swing states in the balance).

Most of the scare tactics they use are TRT, (Typical Republican Tactics). This one is the “Obama is supported by scary person X so therefore he MUST be bad”. You know, the same kind of argument that the religious right uses against evolution (Hitler supported evolution so it must be wrong).

But one of these claims are just bizarre. In asking you to donate $5000 to their PAC, they bring up Obama’s fiscal policies and how much money you might lose.

Stop and think how much Obama may cost you and your family in new taxes over the next four years alone: $50,000, $75,000, $100,000 or even more.

Who in the hell are they targeting with this email? They really expect people to lose $100,000 in the next 4 years under Obama? I wonder how much you would have to actually make to lose $25,000 a year under Obama’s tax plans.

I calculated my taxes under both candidates and my taxes are less under Obama than they are under McCain. So I guess they are not targeting me with this email. And I know I cannot afford to donate $5,000 to any candidate. But it has become clear that the Republican party is desperate. They will go to any lengths to win. Country first? Ha! Party first to them, Country is only a priority to them when convenient. At the moment, it is victory firs, whatever the cost. (And it seems the first thing to go was integrity).

Ah the desperate GOP is at it again. They cannot win on the issues so they have to win by using smear tactics.

The GOP is going to file a campaign finance complaint against Obama for exceeding federal limits and receiving donations from foreigners even though they have no proof he has accepted funds from foreigners.

Sarah Palin says that Obama is “palling around” with terrorists but never said the name of the terrorist (even though she was referring to Ayers). Now, why not say the Ayers name? Well obviously because if you leave the name out the people might think that you are talking about Islamic terrorists. And, of course, there is the small tidbit that Obama and Ayers are not “palling around”. But Palin won’t let the facts get in the way of her attacks against Obama.

How many more false statements will the McCain/Palin campaign (and the GOP) have to make before people view them as the little boy who cried wolf?